Emergency Management Modeling

Preparing for man-made and natural emergencies requires both analysis of potential crisis situations and training those who are responsible for dealing with the crises; from first responders at the local level up to national leaders. Models and simulations can be used to analyze the adequacy of emergency management procedures and response plans, to give local, state and national leaders practice at making response management decisions and to support emergency management training exercises. When training is directed at decision makers, models representing first responders can be used to significantly reduce training and exercise costs. This paper discusses various types of incidents that can be depicted using simulations such as a typhoon or a man-made incident involving explosives set off in highly populated areas. We also discuss how models and simulations make it possible to test plans for responding to the possibility of multiple catastrophic incidents, such as a coordinated terrorist attack on a civilian population and to study the cascading effects and demands over time for emergency response assets. We conclude with recommendations for how emergency management models and simulations can be used to help inform and guide the process to reset infrastructure and restore services to the affected population.